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Swing Traders Risk/Reward Analysis

Trade Execution is a 3-Step Process

  • Finding the pattern
  • Defining buy/sell signals based on support/resistance levels, prior highs/lows, etc..
  • Trade/execution
Patterns Do Not Trigger Execution, Price Action Does

Patterns

  • Are only "MODELS" in that they are based on past price behavior.
  • While: they are "predictive" in that they can tell us if a stock is moving up or down or has the "potential" of a move, they cannot tell us if or when to execute a trade.
  • Which explains why a lot of setups never get executed.

Price Action

  • a Support and resistance level, breaking of high/lows, etc… triggers the execution.
  • So in essence, a PATTERN is only as good as the PRICE ACTION that follows it.

Entry

  • They are basically 3 ENTRY Choices on most SETUPS
    • Enter in congestion near a breakout or breakdown.
    • When the breakout or breakdown occurs, wait for a pullback to Enter.
    • Try to enter as a breakout or breakdown starts, and hope to get filled at a good price. (Sort of like trying to catch a cab in NYC on a rainy day.)

Day Trades

  • Stocks' BREAKING OUT of short-term patterns such as Bull Flags Bullish Pennants or Ascending Wedges.
  • When they BREAKOUT, they will typically tack on 80% of the gains on the day of the breakout.
  • In fact, Bull Flags, Pennants...are not real "setups", they are more extensions from previous setups, the basic "more juice" being added to the mix type setup.
  • They are short term in nature, and are typically the last stage of a stock's RALLY before a CORRECTION. Bull flags in particular are many times wave "4" of "5", once breakout occurs wave 5 is hit. We all know what happens after wave 5 right?

Swing Trades

  • Stocks BREAKING OUT of longer term patterns such as Bases, Triple Tops, Cup & Handles or Wave Patterns.
  • When they BREAKOUT, that suggests the move is 20-100% or more away from my entry, and the potential gains are more spread out over time.

Long Picks

  HIGH LOW CLOSE
Enter Your Stock Numbers:
Buy the Pivot Range
High Low
Profit Time Profit Time
Stop/loss Stop/loss
Stop Loss Stop Loss
Profit Sell Profit Sell
NUMBER OF SHARES:
YOUR COST:
Loss If Stopped Loss If Stopped
Profit Sold For A Gain Profit Sold For A Gain
Balance After Loss Balance After Loss
Balance After Gain Balance After Gain

Short Picks

  HIGH LOW CLOSE
Enter Your Stock Numbers:
Short the Pivot Range
High Low
Cover Loss Cover Loss
Cover Gain Cover Gain
Stop Loss Stop Loss
Profit Cover Profit Cover
NUMBER OF SHARES:
YOUR COST:
Loss If Stopped Loss If Stopped
Profit Sold For A Gain Profit Sold For A Gain
Balance After Loss Balance After Loss
Balance After Gain Balance After Gain
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