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Day trading the SP 500 e-mini

Outlook for the week of Mar. 26

1. Friday prices – ESM7

Open

High

Low

Closing

1446.25

1451.00

1444.50

1447.00

2. Major support and resistance for Monday Mar. 5

Resistance

1453.75

1457.25

1463.75

1467.25

1471.25

Support

1438.25

1434.75

1428.00

1423.25

1419.75

3. Weekly outlook

After last Wednesday’s rally all three major markets went sideways for the next two days. On the positive side, all three markets did hold their gain in to the end of the week. However the volume didn’t follow through in the final two days. All three are short–term overbought and trading in daily resistance zones.

Price has moved into a very important level – “make or die” level. If traders don’t see volume follow through, we should expect price to pull back soon. If we do see the volume follow through in the first two days this week, it is possible for our market to hold strong and break out from the last two day’s consolidation resistance level.  In addition, the end of the quarter comes this week; we may see fund end-of-quarter window dressing and a pop in anticipation of April’s earning season.

For the technical analysis:  ES June contract (ESM7) has a gap around 1461.25-1452.25, Continuation Contract ES#F has a gap around 1452.75 and SPX has a gap at 1449.57. We may see these gaps filled before ES starts to go down again to retest its 20 and 40 ema lines.

Weekly major resistance level  is 1465 and support level is 1412.

Weekly chart – ESM7

Stock Charts

4. Daily outlook for Monday Mar. 26

After a huge two-hour rally last Wednesday afternoon, ES has been marking time for the past two days.  That could indicate a potential reversal and we should be prepared for it today.  ES is short-term overbought and retesting its previous breakdown level around 1452-54 area.  We may see a small pullback into the 1434-33 range today for testing the 20/40 daily moving average if ES fails to hold price above 1444 level.

Daily chart – ESM7

Stock Charts

5. Trading strategy for Monday, Mar. 26

 

Last Friday, ES made its second narrow range day (NR7). ES was in contraction mode for past two days. Today range breakout movement should be expected. Also Price volatility should pick up as soon as price breaks out of its consolidation range.

For upside movement, 1450-51 range is key. Breakout this range, price could go up to fill the gap either 1552.75(ESH7) or 1461.25 (ESM7).

For downside movement, 1444-45 is key. Breakdown this range, price could dip into 1438-37.50 range or lower to 1434.50-33.

 

Intraday swing position entry on short side:
1452.75-53.75 (scalping), 1458.25 (agg) and 1461.25(cons)
Intraday swing position entry on long side:
1436.25-35.50 (scalping) 1432.75 (agg) and 1429.25-1428.25 (cons)

Intraday chart ESM7:

Stock Charts

7. Results last week

Weekly summary: calls for w/o Mar. 12/07

Type

Number

Outcome (points)

scalping calls

26

55.50

position swing calls

4

-9.00

method calls

1

4.25

What does this mean? See this explanation.

To see the trading plan for Tuesday, Mar. 27, contact