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Thursday, May 4th 2006

Noon Update - INDU, TRAN, MID, & SMH


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) - Daily chart
The daily chart of the INDU illustrates that it broke out of the continuation diamond pattern in February of this year. Diamond patterns take a long time to play out. The INDU then went on to form two bull flags that retraced to the 50 day EMA at the uptrend line. Recently, the INDU broke out of the second bull flag and cleared previous resistance at 11350. Since then the INDU has gone on to print a new 52 week high. Today, the INDU is up 0.51% / 57.63 points at 11457.91 which is the new 52 week high. Current support is at the uptrend line at 11053.21. The next price target is 11750 later on this year. The moving averages are holding up in a nice bullish fan, and the indicators and oscillators are in a bullish trend reversal.

Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) - Daily Chart

Supporting the move up in the INDU is the strength in the TRAN. The TRAN is currently parabolic and is at new 52 week highs. The TRAN is currently at 4873.90. The TRAN has broken out of the continuation RST to the upside, which is not shown on this chart. Remember the DAX was in a continuation RST last year, and it has since then rallied 100 points. Well, the TRAN is about to do the same thing. The TRAN chart may look toppy, however it keeps going higher, because there is no resistance above. In addition, the TRAN has been trading in a bullish up trending channel for the past 6 months. Indicators and oscillators have been in a full blown bullish trend reversal since the lows in October 2005. The RSI and PPO continue to make new highs along with price which is bullish.

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index (MID)- Daily chart

As I have reiterated in previous updates, the mid caps and small caps continue to out perform the market. The daily chart of the Mid Caps shows that it has been going up steadily and staying in its uptrend channel as well as forming an ascending triangle. Resistance is at 813.32 and support is at 790. Indicators and oscillators are in a bullish trend reversal.

Semiconductor Holders ETF (SMH) - Daily chart
The SMH daily chart, illustrates that it is in a a large megaphone topping pattern / RST. Furthermore, it appears that the SMH is forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern within the larger RST pattern. The Neckline is at previous resistance at $38.80. If the SMH can take out that resistance, then that action will be bullish and the SMH will be headed towards E of the RST. The Aroon is in a bullish cross, and the indicators and oscillators are turning bullish. The SMH is looking better now, and it is holding it's moving averages.

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