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Thursday, April 13th 2006

Weekend Update - COMPQ, SPX, INDU, TNX, & USB


The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ)- Daily Chart
The daily chart of the COMPQ illustrates that it has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern. The COMPQ has sold off on light volume to test the 34 day moving average at 2312.98. The COMPQ then rallied backup to test resistance at 2332 on even lighter volume. If the COMPQ sells off or rallies next week, the move will be big, and on high volume. I don't think the highs are in. However, if the other indexes take out their respective uptrend lines, then that is bearish. The Aroon is bullish, but other indicators and oscillators are rolling over. The COMPQ is up 0.49% at 2326.11. Longer term price target is in the 2400's. However, this does not mean a license to become over leveraged. Keep your positions balanced within your portfolio.

S&P 500 chart (SPX) - Daily chart
The daily chart of the SPX illustrates that it has been trading in an uptrend channel since October 2005. The SPX was unable to take out resistance at 1315, and has since had a waterfall drop back to the uptrend line at 1283.0. If the uptrend line fails to hold, the SPX will be in serious trouble, and that will be bearish. However, there are no short term clues saying that the uptrend line will break. We will have to wait and see which way the SPX goes. Nevertheless, the Aroon had a bearish cross and indicators and oscillators are mildly bearish.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) - Daily chart

The chart of the INDU illustrates that it has broken out of the continuation diamond pattern and is now in the process of forming a bull flag as it pulls back off of it's highs placed at 11335 in March of this year. The indicators and oscillators are in a bearish trend reversal. I do not believe the INDU will break out until it breaks above the 11,350.00 level. The uptrend at 11053.21 has to hold here, or the INDU will reverse downwards. It seems that the market is on the verge of a big move.

10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) - Monthly Chart
The Monthly chart illustrates that the TNX has been trading in a bullish channel and is headed towards the long term downtrend line. The TNX has been trading in tandem with the market since 2003. It is possible that it may break out.

30-Year US Treasury Bond Price EOD (USB) - Monthly Chart
The Monthly chart illustrates that the Bond has been trading in a bullish channel for the last 15 years. However, the USB is now sitting on the uptrend line. Will it hold? The Aroon just had a bearish cross. Indicators and oscillators are showing bearish divergence.






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